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ACUS11 KWNS 011032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011031
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 AM CST Sat Dec 01 2018

Areas affected...Southern Mississippi...Southern Alabama...Far
Western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 011031Z - 011130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and tornado threat will likely
develop this morning across parts of southern Mississippi, southern
Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. Weather watch issuance
may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively tilted
upper-level trough over the Arklatex region. A well-developed
low-level jet is located across the central Gulf Coast States and
lower Mississippi Valley. This feature will result in strong
moisture advection across the central Gulf Coast. In response,
surface dewpoints and instability will gradually increase across
southern Mississippi and southern Alabama this morning. The
increasing low-level moisture and instability combined with strong
deep-layer shear will make severe storm development possible. In
addition, the Mobile, AL WSR-88D VWP in the warm frontal zone, has
0-3 km storm relative helicity of 500-550 m2/s2 with a long and
looped hodograph. This may support tornado development with the
discrete rotating storms that either move onshore or develop over
land. The strongest of cells could also produce isolated damaging
wind gusts.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 32198802 32208900 31798966 31218996 30588968 30198903
30158800 30348696 30638656 31188650 31548687 32198802



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