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ACUS11 KWNS 010659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010658
TNZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1676
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sat Dec 01 2018

Areas affected...Far Northeast Texas...Northern
Louisiana...Arkansas...Southern Missouri...Far Western
Tennessee...Northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Tornado Watch 430...431...

Valid 010658Z - 010900Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 430, 431 continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue across weather watches 430
and 431 through late tonight. Wind damage, hail and a couple
tornadoes will be possible with the stronger portions of the line.
Additional WW likely be needed ahead of the line.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a large-scale bowing MCS
extending from southwest Missouri into western Arkansas and far
northeast Texas. The line is being supported by a band of strong
large-scale ascent evident on water vapor imagery. Ahead of the line
in far northeast Texas, northwest Louisiana and much of western
Arkansas, the RAP is showing moderate instability with MLCAPE values
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range decreasing with eastward extent
toward the Mississippi River. The instability combined with the
strong forcing and 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt will continue a
severe threat as the line moves eastward into the mid Mississippi
Valley over the next couple of hours. Wind damage will be possible
with the stronger parts of the line. Also, 0-3 km storm-relative
helicity of 400 to 450 m2/s2 will support an isolated tornado
threat.

Further north into southern Missouri, the airmass is weakly
unstable. However, WSR-88D VWPs show 70 kt of deep-layer shear and
0-3 km shear storm relative helicity of 450 to 500 m2/s2. The strong
shear will help to overcome the weak instability sustaining a
potential for wind damage and a brief tornado.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 37099359 36159342 35289329 34319405 33179507 32619515
32189485 32129323 32269181 33089096 34699012 35728988
37369083 37579324 37099359



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