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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1674

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, December 01, 2018 05:33:05
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 010433
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010432
    TXZ000-010600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1674
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1032 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

    Areas affected...Central/North-Central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 010432Z - 010600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with the thunderstorms developing across central TX. The spatial and temporal
    extent of the severe threat is uncertain but trends are being
    monitored for possible watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have recently developed along the leading edge
    of the strong forcing for ascent associated with the ejecting
    mid/upper trough and associated jet max. Low-level wind fields are
    beginning to veer ahead of the line and the strongest low/mid-level
    winds are displaced northeastward. Even so, effective bulk shear is
    more than supportive of rotating storms and cool mid-level
    temperatures are contributing to a modest increase in instability.
    These factors, as well as the linear nature to the forcing for
    ascent, suggest that a linear storm mode is preferred with a primary
    threat large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible, but
    low-level stability shown in forecast soundings will likely mitigate
    this threat somewhat. Initial development has the highest likelihood
    to produce severe hail with a transition to more of a damaging wind
    threat thereafter. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
    issuance.

    ..Mosier/Goss.. 12/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 32349709 32499682 32569635 32349570 31809576 31449590
    31089612 30749643 30539691 30439727 30389801 30659845
    31729749 32349709



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