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ACUS11 KWNS 010312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010312
MOZ000-KSZ000-010515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010312Z - 010515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase late this evening ahead of
the primary thunderstorm band. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Primarily elevated convection is ongoing across
southeast KS and southwest MO as of 03Z. While steep midlevel lapse
rates and sufficient effective shear will support a localized hail
threat in the short term with the strongest cores, a somewhat
greater severe threat is expected later this evening associated with
the ongoing QLCS across central into northeast OK. This QLCS should
be maintained through much of the night as it moves northeastward in
advance of the strong mid/upper trough and surface low currently
moving into central OK. Some severe wind threat will likely spread
into southeast KS/southwest MO with time, though this may be
mitigated to some extent by a stable near-surface layer, since the
primary warm front is expected to generally remain south of this
area. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out across far
southeast KS/southwest MO given strong low-level shear, though
unfavorable low-level stability should tend to mitigate the tornado
threat as well. Watch issuance is possible within the next 1-2 hours
if the ongoing QLCS across OK maintains its intensity.

..Dean/Goss.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...ICT...

LAT...LON 37989602 37869467 37539348 36989241 36719238 36579280
36579423 36589445 36869452 37009457 37129547 37169590
37299620 37849636 37989602



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