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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0382

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, May 11, 2018 00:07:06
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110006
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-110200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0706 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

    Areas affected...eastern CO... far northwest KS... and far southwest
    NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 110006Z - 110200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for large hail and damaging winds
    exists the next few hours... watch issuance unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated severe storms have developed across portions
    of eastern CO in response to diurnal heating and low-level upslope
    flow. Despite moving into an environment with MLCAPE of 1500-2000
    J/kg and effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, a strong capping
    inversion should help limit the overall coverage, and eventually,
    intensity of these storms. Thus, an isolated threat for large hail
    and damaging winds will remain possible for the next few hours,
    however, issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch is not currently
    expected.

    ..Karstens/Guyer.. 05/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

    LAT...LON 38880382 39390385 40040350 40400284 40340135 39250160
    38680273 38880382



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, April 18, 2019 05:54:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180554
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180554
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0382
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1254 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2019

    Areas affected...East Texas...southeastern Oklahoma...southwestern Arkansas...and western Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

    Valid 180554Z - 180700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...New WW will be issued shortly downstream of WW 78 and 79.

    DISCUSSION...A semi-organized line of storms continues moving east
    across East Texas and the Hill Country at this time, and should
    continue over the next few hours. The overall environment appears
    supportive of locally enhanced storms -- with some potential for
    complex structures within the line, and associated locally damaging
    wind risk. As such, a new/downstream watch will be issued shortly.

    ..Goss/Edwards.. 04/18/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 33839595 34189469 33709322 32739306 31529298 29699407
    28439658 28709725 30329637 33839595



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