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ACUS11 KWNS 010303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010302
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1671
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0902 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Areas affected...Far northeast TX...Far southeast OK...Most of AR...

Concerning...Tornado Watch 430...

Valid 010302Z - 010400Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 430 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for tornadoes continues across the watch area.
Thunderstorms across eastern OK are expected to reach western
portions of the watch within the next two hours or so.

DISCUSSION...Initial warm advection storms have largely dissipated
outside of the multicellular activity near the warm front and along
the eastern fringe of the warm conveyor. Low to mid-level winds are
expected to increase during the next few hours as a strong shortwave
trough continues to mature. Hodographs will elongate as a result of
these increased winds, signaling a kinematic environment very
supportive of tornadoes. In contrast, the thermodynamic environment
will remain only marginally sufficient for updraft maintenance.
Mid-level lapse rates will steepen slightly but the strongest
forcing for ascent and coolest mid-level temperatures will remain
displaced northwestward. Even so, the ongoing convective lines
across central and eastern OK are expected to move eastward into the strengthening kinematic environment over the region. Current
expectation is for this activity to reach the western edge of
Tornado Watch 430 within the next 2 hours or so. As such, despite
the ongoing lull in activity across much of the watch area, the
threat for tornadoes persists.

..Mosier.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 32989516 36219418 36209059 32989171 32989516



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