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ACUS11 KWNS 010353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010352
OKZ000-TXZ000-010515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0952 PM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

Areas affected...Eastern OK...North-central/Northeast TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 429...

Valid 010352Z - 010515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 429 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for primarily damaging winds and perhaps a few
tornadoes continues.

DISCUSSION...Widespread convection is ongoing across WW 429 at
0345Z, with the primary QLCS running from northeast OK into
north-central TX, and increasing convection noted ahead of this
QLCS. While the storm mode has become increasingly linear across
much of OK, sufficient instability and strong low-level shear will
continue to support a tornado threat, especially with any discrete
supercells that can develop, as recently observed between Tulsa and
Fort Smith in eastern OK near the surface warm front. Otherwise,
damaging winds will continue to be a threat, especially with any
bowing segments within the larger QLCS, and a couple brief QLCS
tornadoes are also possible.

Further south into north TX, convection has struggled to maintain
severe intensity, possibly due to being further removed from the
ejecting mid/upper trough. However, moderate instability and strong
low-level and effective shear is expected to persist along and ahead
of ongoing storms through the remainder of the evening, and any
uptick in intensity for any cells in this area will be accompanied
by a risk for all severe hazards.

..Dean.. 12/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32539728 34349617 35219633 35779638 36309631 36869612
36969505 36939472 36079460 34819455 34159482 33549505
32959535 32489557 32329640 32459739 32539728



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