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ACUS11 KWNS 102053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102053
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Areas affected...central through eastern Virginia and western
Maryland

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78...

Valid 102053Z - 102200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will remain capable of producing locally
damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail through early evening
with greatest severe threat through 23Z expected over southeast
Virginia.

DISCUSSION...Greatest severe threat next hour or two appears to be
with line of storms moving through southeast VA where some organized
structures including bowing segments continue to be observed.
Farther upstream convective overturning and anvil shadows have
contributed to a modest reduction in instability, with latest
objective analysis indicating around 800-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Trend has
been for storms over WV to weaken. However, some redevelopment might
occur as the consolidated outflows advance east of the higher
terrain. Other isolated storms will also continue to develop and
move into the western portion of WW 78 posing an isolated severe
risk, but an overall diminishing trend should occur by 23Z.

..Dial.. 05/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 36767961 38017927 39157845 39647773 39647615 38597613
37017619 36677686 36767961



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ACUS11 KWNS 180231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180230
TXZ000-OKZ000-180400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0930 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...portions of north Texas and far south-central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78...

Valid 180230Z - 180400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 78
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds will be the primary threat with storms
tracking east/northeast across north Texas this evening, though some
hail potential will continue in the short term, especially near the
Red River.

DISCUSSION...Two areas of intense storms are currently tracking
east/northeast across WW 78. The northern area of storms near the
Red River have continued to produce large hail from 1 to 1.75 inches
and strong wind gusts this evening. Guidance suggests these storms
will continue to track along the Red River the next several hours.
Strong instability some increase in 850-700 mb flow is possible
based on observations from the VWP at FWS and SRX. Based on this,
severe potential may extend outside the current watch boundary by
around 04z as suggested by current track forecast.

Further south, another strong to severe line of storms from Erath to
Brown Counties in central TX also will continue moving into an
environment supportive of severe storms, similar to that further to
the north. Radar trends have not been as robust with respect to hail production, which is not unexpected given linear storm mode.
Damaging winds will continue to be the threat with this line of
convection toward midnight. As with storms near the Red River, the
forecast track currently brings storms to the edge of WW 78 by
around 04-05Z, and either an aerial extension or new watch may need
to be considered if intensity trends continue.

..Leitman.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 33299793 34099696 34219578 33939517 33189526 32439568
31599654 31179738 31149829 31399887 31619916 33299793



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