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ACUS11 KWNS 102023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102023
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Areas affected...eastern Pennsylvania through southeast New York and
northwest New Jersey

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 102023Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose a risk for mainly a few strong to
locally damaging wind gusts and small to marginally severe hail this
afternoon. At this time overall threat does not appear sufficient
for a WW, and unless convective trends dictate otherwise, a WW for
this region will probably not be needed.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon a broken line of storms extends from
east central NY through south central PA moving east southeast at
25-30 kt. Storms will continue developing along and just ahead of a
cold front. The pre-frontal warm sector is only marginally unstable
with surface temperatures in the 70s, near 60 F dewpoints, and weak
mid-level lapse rates supporting 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE. VWP data
indicate the storms are embedded within 35-40 kt effective bulk
shear with mostly unidirectional wind profiles. However, slightly
larger 0-1 km hodographs reside north of warm front from northeast
PA into southeast NY, but the near-surface layer is less unstable in
that region. Overall environment appears to support multicell storms
as well as a few storms with weak mid-level updraft rotation and
marginal supercell structures into early evening. Locally strong
wind gusts and marginally severe hail could accompany the stronger
cells, but overall coverage of severe events is expected to remain
sparse.

..Dial/Hart.. 05/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 40267763 40787693 41387629 42067537 42677446 42177405
40917486 39917593 39877760 40267763



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ACUS11 KWNS 180221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180220
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-180345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 180220Z - 180345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase into the overnight
hours. While some storms may be strong to severe, overall
disorganized storm mode may preclude the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...A few strong storms have developed in southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas this evening. Additional storm
development is expected during the early overnight hours as the
low-level jet strengthens. MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg and effective
shear of 50 to 60 knots will be supportive of supercell structures.
However, widespread convective development is expected to disrupt
storm mode which may alleviate a greater severe weather threat and
the need for a watch. Before more widespread storms form, the severe
threat may be somewhat enhanced while storms remain more discrete
with a threat for large hail, damaging winds, and even an isolated
tornado. Trends will continue to be monitored.

..Bentley.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 34709553 35759461 36559387 36539240 34519311 34139351
33949431 34019483 34019522 34319547 34709553



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