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ACUS11 KWNS 101935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101935
NCZ000-102130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Areas affected...west central through central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 101935Z - 102130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will be capable of producing isolated
downburst winds and marginally severe hail as they develop east
through North Carolina this afternoon and early evening. The slight
risk will be expanded farther south into central North Carolina, and
trends will continue to be monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue developing over higher terrain and
spreading east into western North Carolina with additional storms
initiating along remnant outflow boundaries. This zone of
thunderstorm development will continue east during the afternoon.
Strong diabatic heating of the boundary layer has boosted
temperatures into the 80s with dewpoints from 55-60F supporting
1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Winds aloft are slightly weaker than farther
north in VA, but steep 0-3 km lapse rates and modest buoyancy will
support a threat for at least isolated strong to damaging wind
gusts, especially as storms begin to congeal into line segments and
clusters during next few hours.

..Dial/Hart.. 05/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...

LAT...LON 35578141 36058072 36427941 36407762 35757816 35217914
35168066 35228137 35578141



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ACUS11 KWNS 180050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180049
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-180215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0376
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...and far
western MIssouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

Valid 180049Z - 180215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
continues.

SUMMARY...Continued upscale growth of ongoing convection will lead
to additional severe weather into the overnight hours. The best
chance for damaging winds will be along the Kansas/Oklahoma border.

DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has now grown into a convective
complex in northwestern Oklahoma extending into south central
Kansas. The Oklahoma mesonet shows evidence of a developing cold
pool with upper 50 temperatures across much of northwest Oklahoma.
This cold pool is expected to surge eastward through the evening and
will likely produce a bowing area of damaging winds somewhere along
the Kansas/Oklahoma border. The higher wind damage threat is
expected to start to organize somewhere near Ponca City and extend
east northeastward along and just south of the location of the
front.

Outside of this area, convection along the front in east central
Kansas and convection extending southward from the expected bowing
segment will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds
through the evening and into the early overnight. Storms are
expected to stay mostly north of I-40 in Oklahoma, but additional
storm development on the southern edge of this line could
necessitate the addition of a watch for a few more counties south of
severe thunderstorm watch 76.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 37459865 36379899 35479907 35929691 36699495 37299446
38169431 38589425 38859477 37459865



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