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ACUS11 KWNS 101857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101856
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-102100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming...southwest Nebraska...and
northeast Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 101856Z - 102100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will form over the higher terrain within the next
hour or two. A watch will likely be needed as these storms move
northeast.

DISCUSSION...The combination of low-level upslope flow, and an
approaching shortwave trough will trigger storm development across
the higher terrain of the Laramie Range in the next hour or two.
Further east, low-level moisture advection beneath very steep
mid-level lapse rates greater than 8.5 C/km has led to weak
surface-based destabilization across southeastern WY, northeast CO,
and southwest NE. Diabatic heating under clear skies in addition to
increasing low-level moisture from the southeast will lead to
further destabilization with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg this afternoon.
Storms will form on the southern periphery of a mid-level speed max
which will provide sufficient mid-level flow for storm organization.
This was sampled by the 1818Z VWP from CYS with around 35 knots of west-southwesterly flow around 5 to 6 km. Resultant effective bulk
shear values of 40 to 45 knots combined with the greater instability
will support supercell structures as these storms move east. Given
the steep mid-level lapse rates, and a well-mixed sub-cloud layer,
large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats. Low-level
hodographs and storm mode may support a tornado threat, however,
high LCLs should limit a greater tornado risk.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/10/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40310305 40500348 40800398 41040455 41070508 41550524
41980537 42170526 42420476 42530430 42690377 42780282
42750210 42470123 42110068 41790019 41010018 40510150
40320195 40290232 40250265 40310305



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ACUS11 KWNS 180000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172359
TXZ000-180100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Texas toward the Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 172359Z - 180100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue to increase this evening
across central TX. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
threats with storms this evening into the nighttime hours. A watch
will likely be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Towering CU and most recently, an isolated
thunderstorm, were increasing in the vicinity of the surface dryline
across parts of the Concho Valley in central TX. This development is
perhaps a little earlier than forecast, but several factors,
including increasing midlevel clouds and towering CU across the TX
Big Bend vicinity into Mexico west of Del Rio, along with RAP
analysis and moistening evident in midlevel water vapor channel
suggest that stronger forcing is beginning to enter the region.
Initial isolated convection will pose a threat for very large hail
with midlevel lapse rates approaching 8 C/km and effective shear
greater than 50kt. While backed low level flow exists to the east of
the dryline, 0-2km shear is only on the order of 10-20 kt. This,
coupled with the fact that any discrete cells should remain rather
high-based should limit tornado potential. As forcing continues to
increase during the evening hours and a southwesterly low level jet
increases, more vigorous development is expected along the
dryline/effective cold front and this activity will quickly take on
a linear storm mode, posing a damaging wind threat as the line
shifts eastward across central TX. A watch will likely be needed
soon.

..Leitman/Hart.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29620145 29600164 29810154 30940047 31769958 31929925
31899884 31669832 31259783 30899768 29899825 29269900
29079933 28780022 28780066 28880073 29040076 29280099
29620145



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