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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0374

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, May 10, 2018 16:36:41
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101636
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101636
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-101830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0374
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CDT Thu May 10 2018

    Areas affected...much of Virginia...Maryland and northern North
    Carolina

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 101636Z - 101830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity this afternoon with initial storms over the central
    Appalachians then spreading into the Middle Atlantic including VA,
    MD and northern NC. Isolated damaging wind gusts should be the
    primary threat.

    DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a few thunderstorms are developing
    along the central through southern Appalachians forced by heating
    over the higher terrain. Strong diabatic warming within the the
    downstream warm sector with weakening convective inhibition and
    dewpoints from the upper 50s to near 60 F should support 800-1200
    J/kg MLCAPE. Steepening 0-3 km lapse rates with inverted-V boundary
    layer characteristics, along with 30-40 kt southwesterly flow
    between 1-4 km will support locally strong downdrafts as storms
    develop east off the higher terrain. Weak vertical shear (around 30
    kt between 0-6 km) will promote multicell storm modes with locally
    strong to damaging wind gusts as storms evolve into short lines
    segments and clusters this afternoon and early evening.

    ..Dial/Hart.. 05/10/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36988082 39307866 39427597 37747637 36377808 36057991
    36988082



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 17, 2019 23:09:09
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 172309
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172308
    KSZ000-OKZ000-180045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0374
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

    Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...

    Valid 172308Z - 180045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Widespread storm development is expected through 01Z. The
    initial threat will be large hail with a quick transition to
    damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...23Z visible satellite imagery and composite radar
    imagery suggest the storm initiation is likely along the entire
    stationary front within the next 1 to 2 hours. Given MLCAPE around
    2500 J/kg and effective shear around 45 to 40 knots per RAP
    mesoanalysis, initial storm mode is expected to be supercellular. In
    addition, very steep mid-level lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km
    will support a threat for very large hail initially. These storms
    are expected to grow upscale rather quickly which will likely end
    the very large hail threat. As this upscale growth continues and a
    cold pool becomes better established, damaging wind gusts are
    expected to be the primary threat later this evening and into the
    overnight hours.

    ..Bentley.. 04/17/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37029913 37649815 38759541 38689485 37879475 37179485
    36389566 35809771 35609847 35679903 36239951 37029913



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