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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1663

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, November 25, 2018 23:36:56
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 252236
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252236
    ILZ000-MOZ000-260000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1663
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0436 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

    Areas affected...east-central MO into west-central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 252236Z - 260000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of strong storms near St. Louis will continue to
    quickly shift northeast late this afternoon. Strong surface winds
    and small hail will be possible with the storms for the next few
    hours as they track into west-central IL.

    DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms near STL will continue
    to quickly lift northeast late this afternoon. Instability is
    limited across the region, generally less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE.
    However, strong forcing for ascent along the cold front and beneath
    the exit region of the midlevel jet streak, coupled with strong
    vertical shear and low level winds approaching 40kt just off the
    surface, will allow for some strong surface gusts. Additionally,
    midlevel lapse rates between 6.5-7 C/km will be sufficient for small
    hail, which has already been reported west of STL. While conditions
    are not overly favorable for tornadoes, backed low level flow ahead
    of the line of convection and 0-1km SRH greater than 150 m2/s2
    cannot be ignored and a brief/weak spin-up is possible. These storms
    are expected to continue for a few more hours into west-central IL.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 11/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39219142 39639062 39779026 39778982 39528943 39198939
    38948955 38718981 38409040 38279072 38519093 38869123
    39059143 39219142



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