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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1662

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, November 25, 2018 22:58:24
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252158
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252157
    ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-260200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1662
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast Missouri...far southeast Iowa...portions
    of western Illinois

    Concerning...Blizzard

    Valid 252157Z - 260200Z

    SUMMARY...Rain/wintry mixed precipitation across the area is
    expected to transition to snow with eastward progression of the
    surface low. 1-2 inch/hour snowfall rates appear likely, with
    blizzard conditions moving into parts of the area over the next few
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...A 996 mb surface low continues to track northeast
    across Missouri into Illinois. Heavy snow has been abundant well to
    the north of the low, along a stationary front aloft, and within the
    northwest quadrant of the surface low, where blizzard conditions
    have been reported in numerous locales. The eastward progressing,
    deepening upper-level trough will encourage maintenance (and perhaps
    some strengthening) of the low's intensity, suggesting that blizzard
    conditions will continue within the northwest quadrant, particularly
    in northeast Missouri into far west Illinois.

    A jet of deep moisture within the 925-850 mb layer will continue to
    saturate the low-level airmass within proximity/north of the low,
    with rapid ascent expected across the discussion area, where 700 mb frontogenesis is quite strong, and saturation has already been noted
    within the dendritic growth/-12 to -17C layer. The surface freezing
    line is rapidly moving into the area from the west, and deep-layer
    cooling is expected. As such, a transition to snow is expected, with
    1-2 inch/hr rates likely.

    ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40038966 39909073 39719144 39609239 39939219 40359187
    40829153 41309106 41329029 41148924 40738880 40038966



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