This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1543171034-22240-1745
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 251836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251836
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-252100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1661
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Louisiana and southern
Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 251836Z - 252100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Severe weather potential still appears generally marginal,
but will probably maximize in the 2-6 PM CST time frame across parts
of southeastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi. This may
include the risk for a tornado; but, due to the isolated/marginal
nature of the threat, a watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A gradual increase in convective development is ongoing
aided by a plume of ascent driven by low-level warm advection now
gradually spreading east of the lower Mississippi Valley. This is
occurring coincident with daytime heating and a gradual influx of
mid 60s to near 70F surface dew points across the north central Gulf
coast, which may contribute to modest boundary layer destabilization
(including CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg) by 20-22Z.

It appears that instability will become maximized inland of
southeastern Louisiana coastal areas through the Lake Pontchartrain
vicinity, where low-level hodographs may remain clockwise curved and
sizable through late afternoon. The environment may become
conducive to the development of a isolated supercell or two,
accompanied by at least some risk for a tornado, and/or localized
damaging wind gusts. This regime may attempt to spread
east/northeastward into portions of adjacent southern Mississippi,
before appreciable boundary layer instability likely becomes
increasingly confined to the offshore waters after sunset.

Otherwise, peak late afternoon instability may also be accompanied
by an increasing risk for marginally severe hail, in stronger
convection rooted both within and above the boundary layer.

..Kerr/Grams.. 11/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29939165 30439160 30909051 30929043 31248957 30698835
29618869 29579045 29619097 29939165



------------=_1543171034-22240-1745
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1543171034-22240-1745--

--- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)