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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1660

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, November 25, 2018 18:54:53
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    ACUS11 KWNS 251754
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 251754
    ILZ000-IAZ000-260000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1660
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1154 AM CST Sun Nov 25 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern Iowa...northern Illinois

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 251754Z - 260000Z

    SUMMARY...A mix of sleet and snow falling across parts of eastern
    Iowa into northern Illinois, is expected to transition to mainly
    snow over the next several hours. Very heavy snow, with accumulation
    rates of at least 1-2 inches/hour, is likely.

    DISCUSSION...A narrow, west-to-east oriented band of mixed wintry
    precipitation is ongoing from an area along a Keokuk County IA to
    Cook County IL axis. Current KDVN and KLOT dual-polarimetric radar
    data suggest that mainly sleet is falling within this band of
    heavier precipitation.

    The aforementioned band of precipitation has been sustained
    predominantly by 700 mb WAA/frontogenetic forcing, which should
    continue for several more hours. As a deepening surface low
    approaches the area later this afternoon/evening, large scale lift
    should only increase with time. Meanwhile, mesoanalysis indicates
    relatively strong 925 mb CAA impinging on the horizontal
    precipitation band to the north. Latest RAP point forecast soundings
    also suggest that cooling of the low-level troposphere will
    transpire during the early afternoon hours. As such, a change over
    of sleet/mixed wintry precipitation to snow is expected. With very
    strong lift expected within a saturating/deepening dendritic growth
    zone, very heavy snowfall, with rates of at least 1-2 inches/hour
    should prevail through the afternoon hours.

    ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41189086 41039166 41509232 41919194 42309031 42408784
    41768757 41598764 41209089 41189086



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