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ACUS11 KWNS 241817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241816
NCZ000-241945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

Areas affected...North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241816Z - 241945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells could impact portions of the Outer
Banks through 2-5 PM EST. This may be accompanied by at least some
risk for a tornado or localized damaging wind gusts over land areas,
but the severe threat appears generally low enough that a watch is
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A small area of sustained vigorous thunderstorm
development remains focused near/northeast of a developing surface
low now migrating northeast of Wilmington. This is being supported
by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with strong low-level
warm advection, beneath difluent high level flow ahead of an
approaching vigorous upper trough axis. This forcing is forecast to
continue developing steadily eastward/northeastward, likely off
southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by 22-23Z.

Thunderstorm activity may increase through the next few hours inland
across the North Carolina coastal plain, and perhaps the Virginia
Tidewater area. However, inland of the coast, this appears likely
to be elevated above a near surface stable layer, with negligible
risk for severe weather, before the onset of mid-level subsidence
and drying diminishes convective potential.

Based on latest Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, the
northern/northwestern periphery of boundary-layer based
destabilization and thunderstorm development probably will remain
offshore, passing near/south through east of Morehead City.
However, large clockwise curved low-level hodographs within this
environment will be conducive to supercells with a risk for
tornadoes, and/or localized strong surface gusts, and at least
portions of the Outer Banks could be impacted through the 19-22Z
time frame.

..Kerr/Grams.. 11/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...

LAT...LON 34537705 35097626 35967537 35537508 34887563 34277682
34537705



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