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ACUS11 KWNS 241508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241508
NYZ000-PAZ000-242015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 AM CST Sat Nov 24 2018

Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania...south-central New York

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 241508Z - 242015Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain ongoing in some locales, with additional
freezing rain expected over the next few hours. Accumulation rates
of 0.03-0.10 inches are possible.

DISCUSSION...A negatively tilted upper-level trough will continue to
traverse portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States
throughout the day, with large scale ascent and precipitation
prevalent across the area. The surface airmass is characterized by below-freezing temperatures, where freezing rain has been reported
across portions of western Pennsylvania over the last few hours.
Heavier precipitation is approaching central Pennsylvania and
south-central New York, where a 10-15F surface T/TD spread exists,
with wet-bulb surface temperatures expected to remain well below
zero across the region for several hours owing to evaporative
cooling of the approaching precipitation band.

RAP point forecast soundings and mesoanalysis both indicate that
strong warm-air advection is prevalent throughout the 925-700 mb
layer, supporting melting snow aloft and surface accumulations of
liquid precipitation. KCCX radar suggests relatively heavy
precipitation is falling across portions of central Pennsylvania,
where freezing rain accumulation rates of 0.03-0.10 inches are
possible over the next few hours.

..Squitieri.. 11/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39897772 40167837 40577881 41427907 42097888 42567831
42697759 42637685 42307612 41537595 40767618 39877704
39897772



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