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ACUS11 KWNS 240216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240215
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-240815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1654
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CST Fri Nov 23 2018
Areas affected...portions of western North Carolina and southwest
Virginia
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 240215Z - 240815Z
SUMMARY...Mixed precipitation will continue to increase in coverage
over the Blue Ridge mountains of western North Carolina while
spreading north into southwest Virginia through 08Z/3 a.m. EST.
Freezing rain, mixed at times with sleet, can be expected with ice accumulations in excess of .05 inches/3 hours possible.
DISCUSSION...A cold low-level air mass was in place across the
discussion area at 02Z with surface temperatures in the lower-mid
30s, and dew points generally in the lower 20s. A negatively-tilted upper-level trough over the MS Valley region will move steadily east
tonight, with increasing large-scale forcing for ascent developing
over the next few hours. This mid-level forcing, combined with
low-level moist/warm advection, will lead to an expanding area of
precipitation through the late evening and overnight hours.
NAM/RAP forecast soundings and latest hi-resolution guidance suggest
freezing rain will be the dominant precipitation type across the
discussion area, with accumulation rates of 0.05 inches/3 hours
possible. Some sleet may also occur given an increasing warm layer
centered around 800 mb.
..Bunting.. 11/24/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 35298194 35268230 35328252 35638251 35898234 37058103
37368049 37327991 37027985 36627995 35968079 35298194
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