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ACUS11 KWNS 172254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172254
TXZ000-OKZ000-180100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0554 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Areas affected...south-central OK into northern and central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 172254Z - 180100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Convection will likely develop in the next 1-2 hours and
watch will likely be needed by 00z. A localized tornado threat may
develop in the vicinity of the Red River from north Texas into
south-central OK in the short term with additional severe convection
expected later this evening into central TX.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated cu field across the Red River Valley into north TX along a
sharp dryline extending southward from a surface low near CDS, and
to the south of a warm front oriented west to east across
south-central OK. Latest water vapor imagery also shows some deeper
updrafts beginning to develop in the vicinity of Jack, Montague,
Cooke, Wise and Denton Counties in north Texas. Furthermore, the
increase of midlevel clouds further southwest across the Trans-Pecos
and Permia Basin regions of western TX indicate that stronger
forcing is now beginning to shift eastward into the region. This
should support convective initiation in the next couple of hours
across the MCD area.
In the short term, should isolated cells develop in the vicinity of
the triple point in the Red River Valley, supercells capable of very
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible. While low
level flow isn't particularly strong across this region, the warm
front will enhance low level SRH. Mean mixing ratios between 12-14
g/kg also will be more than sufficient for tornado production.
Additionally, midlevel lapse rates between 8-9 C/km as sampled by
the 20z OUN RAOB and 0-6 km shear greater than 45 kt will favor very
large hail.
Eventually, as forcing for ascent increases and the surface cold
front begins to catch up to the dryline, additional, vigorous
convection is expected to develop southward into central Texas this
evening. This convection may initially pose a threat for very large
hail before growing upscale into bowing line segments and
transitioning to a damaging wind threat.
..Leitman/Hart.. 04/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33199867 34369823 34339755 33689672 32789677 31899724
31209802 30939883 31079932 31969954 33199867
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