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ACUS11 KWNS 092050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092050
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-092215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Wed May 09 2018

Areas affected...Northeastern IL and southeast WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 092050Z - 092215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is increasing along the front in south
central WI and north central IL. The threat for severe storms will
increase through the evening. While the severe threat is expected to
remain marginal/isolated, a watch may be needed if a more widespread
severe threat develops.

DISCUSSION...Increasing cumulus field and deeper updrafts indicate
the cap is starting to break across central and eastern IL. The
mid-level speed max triggering this convection is apparent on
GOES-16 6.9 and 6.2 micron water vapor channels in eastern IA. These
storms will become increasingly organized as the mid-level winds
increase and deep-layer shear becomes more favorable. Isolated large
hail is possible through early evening, but weak mid-level lapse
rates will limit a greater threat. Through time, the risk of low-end
damaging wind will increase as storms grow upscale into a more
linear structure and continue into southern lower MI and northern
IN. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out along and near the warm
front over southeast WI given the lower LCLs and 0-1 km SRH values
around 200 m2/s2. While current severe ingredients remain marginal,
a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed if a more widespread
severe threat develops.

..Bentley/Hart.. 05/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 43308972 43368881 43238837 42918798 42388775 42028765
41618742 41138749 40528753 40248786 40088854 40118953
40168978 40778965 41648945 42488962 43308972



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ACUS11 KWNS 172250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172250
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-180015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0372
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0550 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...the eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...

Valid 172250Z - 180015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across severe
thunderstorm watch 75. The best chance for very large hail will be
with more discrete convection.

DISCUSSION...More widespread convection has started to develop along
the front with additional upscale growth expected through the
evening. Ahead of the front, a few more discrete supercells have
been dropping 1.5 to 2.0 inch hail. Expect these storms to be the
primary producers of very large hail for the next 2 to 3 hours since
this convection is expected to remain more discrete. This more
discrete convection will likely be absorbed into the main line of
storms as the storms along the front propagate eastward and
additional storms develop as stronger forcing moves into the area.
As these storms continue to grow upscale, the threat will transition
from more of a hail threat to a damaging wind threat.

In addition, storms along the front have had several reports of
tornadoes over the past 1 to 2 hours. Visual observations of the
tornadoes, radar imagery, and the vorticity rich low-level
environment along the surface front suggest these tornadoes are
likely forming from landspout processes. This threat may continue
over the next 1 to 2 hours but should wane later into the evening as
the cooling boundary layer and more widespread storm development
yields less favorable low-level lapse rates.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35030242 35610165 36630048 36979988 37189908 36999821
36579805 35819849 35099877 34479932 34210014 34350110
34610228 35030242



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