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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0371

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 09, 2018 18:50:32
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 091850
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 091849
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-092045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0371
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Wed May 09 2018

    Areas affected...Western IL...far eastern IA...and far northeast MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 091849Z - 092045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop in the next hour or two
    with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible. Better storm
    coverage and organization is expected further east in IL and into IN
    and southern MI late this afternoon and early this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Cumulus towers have started to develop along the cold
    front in eastern Iowa. A few radar echoes have shown up on the KDVN
    88D, but given the relatively weak convergence along the cold front
    and a capped environment further east, expect storm development to
    be a slow process. While isolated storms cannot be ruled out in the
    next few hours, the better storm coverage and intensity will not be
    until later today as the front moves into eastern IL this evening.
    The lack of cumulus across most of central IL suggests the
    environment east of the cold front remains capped. The 18Z ILX
    sounding confirms that despite the inversion lifting between 12Z and
    18Z, the environment remains capped, especially for a mixed-layer
    parcel with around 150 J/kg of CINH. Continued destabilization from
    clear skies and low-level moisture advection, coupled with mid-level
    height falls, will help to erode this cap by late this afternoon
    into this evening. The better deep-layer shear will arrive between
    21Z and 00Z as a 55 to 60 knot mid-level speed max moves from
    western IA toward southern Lake Michigan. Weak to moderate
    instability coupled with weak deep-layer shear will limit storm
    strength for the next few hours.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/09/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 43109020 43068980 42768936 42258926 41458918 40848938
    40138965 39869004 39749026 39709050 39619081 39739127
    39859134 41349056 43109020



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 17, 2019 22:17:06
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172217
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172216
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-172345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0371
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0516 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

    Areas affected...northeast IA into southwest WI and northwest IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 172216Z - 172345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A conditional tornado threat is expected to persist over
    the next few hours across northeast IA into northwest IL and perhaps
    into southwest WI. A watch may be needed late this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Conditions have warmed nicely south of a west-to-east
    oriented cold front across southwest into northern IA and strong
    warm/moist advection has resulted in surface dewpoints in the 56-62
    F range. A surface low and weak MCV was analyzed over north-central
    IA at 22z with strong cells developing southwestward ahead of the
    cold front across central IA. The warm sector across eastern IA
    into northern IL has destabilized sufficiently in broken cloudiness
    with MLCAPE between 500-1000 J/kg. Deep shear is marginally
    favorable for supercells and this is evident in rotation in cell in
    Tama County IA recently. As the warm front lifts a bit further
    north and the surface low approaches, low level shear will become
    increasingly favorable for supporting low level rotation. Though the
    threat appears conditional due to modest instability and low level
    moisture, at least some tornado potential exists should a cell
    interact with backed low level flow in the vicinity of the warm
    front. This area and trends will be monitored closely and a watch
    may be needed.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 04/17/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 41739135 41989253 42149280 42589263 43099257 43409225
    43479170 43449118 43098989 42758918 42458882 42128876
    41988879 41778917 41668959 41739135



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