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ACUS11 KWNS 160307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160306
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1651
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Areas affected...Northern Pennsylvania...New York and much of the
New England states

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 160306Z - 160900Z

SUMMARY...Corridor of moderate to heavy snow with rates locally in
excess of 1 inch per hour will continue developing northward through
much of New York State into Vermont, New Hampshire and southern and
central Maine through early morning. The snow will change over to a
period of occasional freezing rain and drizzle from northeast
Pennsylvania into a portion of southeast New York and southern New
England with all rain across far southern New England.

DISCUSSION...As of mid evening the corridor of moderate to heavy
snow extends from the southern half of NY state eastward into a
portion of southern and central New England. This activity is
associated with a band of ascent within a deformation zone north and
east of a progressive shortwave trough currently moving through the
OH Valley. A surface low has deepened off the DelMarVa coast. As
this feature continues northward, the zone of strongest
frontogenetic forcing within the 800-700 mb layer will develop into
eastern NY and much of the remainder of New England, contributing to
increasing ascent within the dendritic growth zone. Moreover,
mid-level lapse rates will gradually steepen from the south, and
might eventually extend far enough northward for some convective
enhancement to the snowfall rates. Farther south, WV imagery shows a
mid-level dry-slot spreading eastward through PA and will eventually
affect southern New England. The drying will extend low enough into
the favored snow growth zone for precipitation type to change over
to freezing drizzle with occasional heavier convective showers.
Moreover, a substantial warm layer aloft will also evolve from the
south as the surface low and southerly low level jet continues
northward.

..Dial.. 11/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...

LAT...LON 42967074 41567255 40667573 41247745 42637763 44217569
44997283 44617011 42967074



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