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ACUS11 KWNS 151457
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151456
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-152100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1648
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0856 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

Areas affected...Central Appalachians...Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 151456Z - 152100Z

SUMMARY...Areas of heavy snow are likely to develop in the higher
elevations of the central Appalachian Mountains this morning. By
afternoon, a mixture of snow and sleet are likely in the lower
elevations from northern Virginia into northern New Jersey. This
corridor may changeover to freezing rain or rain this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
in the mid Mississippi Valley with southwest mid-level flow over
much of the eastern Seaboard. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure is in place across the Northeast. Surface temperatures are
below freezing in most of the central Appalachians with dewpoints
mostly in the teens. As a large area of precipitation moves across
the central Appalachians this morning, the temperature profile will
support the development of snow. Areas of heavy snow will be
possible especially in the higher elevations of the central
Appalachian Mountains where 1 inch per hour snowfall rates may
occur.

Surface temperatures from northern Virginia northeastward to
northern Maryland are currently just below freezing. At this time,
light snow is being reported along this corridor. This snow will
likely develop northeastward into southeast Pennsylvania and
northern New Jersey late this morning. As warm advection continues
over the top of the cold airmass late this morning into early
afternoon, a changeover to sleet, freezing rain and rain will be
possible from northern Virginia to northern New Jersey.

..Broyles/Hart.. 11/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
RLX...

LAT...LON 38327873 38517974 39167986 40567961 41717904 42067799
41907558 41547397 40537401 39307622 38597785 38327873



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