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ACUS11 KWNS 090038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090038
TXZ000-OKZ000-090215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Tue May 08 2018

Areas affected...far southwest OK into northwest TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 090038Z - 090215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong wind gusts are possible this evening across
the MCD area. The overall threat will remain marginal and limited in
space/time and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A band of thunderstorms has developed ahead of a
southward sagging cold front across the TX Panhandle into far
southwest OK. Based on 00z RAOBs from AMA and OUN, this high-based
activity should remain fairly disorganized/weak due to a combination
of weak effective shear, limited instability and capping. However,
00z RAOBs also show an inverted-v sub-cloud layer thermodynamic
profile. This well-mixed boundary layer with steep 0-3km lapse rates
could support a few strong wind gusts this evening. Given the
marginal and unorganized nature of the threat, a watch is not
expected.

..Leitman/Hart.. 05/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON 35129955 33979847 32989833 32459881 32119996 32280094
32610170 33270210 33990214 34630205 34810206 34810127
34830050 35129955



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ACUS11 KWNS 172211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172211
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-172345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 172211Z - 172345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have started to form along the cold front in
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. These storms may be capable
of large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed shortly.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and diabatic heating has
destabilized the area ahead of the cold front over the past few
hours. This has led to sufficient buoyancy for storm development
along the cold front in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Additionally a storm has developed in east central Kansas in the
eastern portion of severe thunderstorm watch 76. Most convective
allowing guidance suggests the primary area of strong storm
development will be associated with additional development along the
boundary where this initial storm has developed. Steep mid-level
lapse rates (8.0 to 8.5 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis) and effective
shear around 40 to 45 knots per TWX VWP will support a threat for
large hail from these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch will be
needed shortly.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON 39559619 40069557 40479472 40549429 40569330 40399208
38829264 38509326 38089414 38739521 38989563 39279611
39559619



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