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ACUS11 KWNS 172043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172043
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0369
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...portions of western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...
Valid 172043Z - 172245Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
continues.
SUMMARY...Discrete supercell thunderstorms in the eastern Texas
Panhandle, which have produced 1-2 inch hail reports in the last 1-2
hours, will continue moving into western Oklahoma. A continued
threat for very large hail will accompany these storms as long as
they can remain discrete. With time, these storms may congeal into a
linear segment and pose more of a severe wind gust threat.
Additional development is also expected along the frontal boundary
in northwest Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Storms ongoing near the triple point from near
Clarendon, TX to near Canadian, TX have intensified and produced a
few 1+ inch hail reports, including a 2 inch report near Wheeler,
TX. Modifying the 18Z OUN sounding with surface conditions of the
environment downstream of these storms shows MLCIN nearly eroded.
With continued surface heating and increasing upper-level support
from an upstream shortwave trough, storms should continue northeast.
As long as storms stay discrete, a threat for large hail -- some
greater than 2 inches -- will remain possible. With time, storms are
still expected to congeal into a linear segment and pose more of a
severe wind gust threat. Storm development will also likely occur
along the quasi-stationary front in northern portions of WW 75.
These storms will likely become linear very quickly with an
associated severe wind gust and large hail threat.
West of WW 75, a few elevated storms have formed nearer to the
upper-level low. Steep-mid level lapse rates and cold temperatures
aloft will continue to support a marginally severe hail threat.
Relatively weaker deep-layer shear has lead to a more disorganized
storm mode. As such, the threat is expected to remain sporadic and
small in spatial scale. A watch is not anticipated for this area,
though trends will be monitored.
..Wendt.. 04/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35410370 36170252 36760112 37079938 37049823 36159834
34769923 34499979 34680100 34630158 34670270 34750349
35410370
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