• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0369

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 08, 2018 23:36:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 082336
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 082336
    ORZ000-WAZ000-090100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0369
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0636 PM CDT Tue May 08 2018

    Areas affected...portions of central Oregon into south-central
    Washington

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 082336Z - 090100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms may produce small hail and gusty winds
    late this afternoon and evening. A watch is not expected at this
    time.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated cells have begun to intensify to the east of
    the Cascades. Instability remains limited to generally less than 500
    J/kg SBCAPE due to dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s and cloud cover.
    However, midlevel lapse rates around 7 deg C/km and effective shear
    around 40 kt will support a few stronger updrafts as storms track
    northeast. Some small hail will be possible with these stronger
    cores. With eastward extent, stronger heating has resulted in
    steeper low level lapse rates and a better mixed boundary layer. As
    a result, some strong wind gusts also may accompany storms. The
    overall marginal nature of the threat will preclude the need for a
    watch this evening.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOI...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...

    LAT...LON 43662170 45332156 46222110 46482103 46842049 46881955
    46641888 46191824 45641810 44561812 43661830 43061916
    42602029 42402109 42472149 42752164 43662170



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 17, 2019 20:43:36
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172043
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172043
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0369
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0343 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

    Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...portions of western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75...

    Valid 172043Z - 172245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 75
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Discrete supercell thunderstorms in the eastern Texas
    Panhandle, which have produced 1-2 inch hail reports in the last 1-2
    hours, will continue moving into western Oklahoma. A continued
    threat for very large hail will accompany these storms as long as
    they can remain discrete. With time, these storms may congeal into a
    linear segment and pose more of a severe wind gust threat.
    Additional development is also expected along the frontal boundary
    in northwest Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...Storms ongoing near the triple point from near
    Clarendon, TX to near Canadian, TX have intensified and produced a
    few 1+ inch hail reports, including a 2 inch report near Wheeler,
    TX. Modifying the 18Z OUN sounding with surface conditions of the
    environment downstream of these storms shows MLCIN nearly eroded.
    With continued surface heating and increasing upper-level support
    from an upstream shortwave trough, storms should continue northeast.
    As long as storms stay discrete, a threat for large hail -- some
    greater than 2 inches -- will remain possible. With time, storms are
    still expected to congeal into a linear segment and pose more of a
    severe wind gust threat. Storm development will also likely occur
    along the quasi-stationary front in northern portions of WW 75.
    These storms will likely become linear very quickly with an
    associated severe wind gust and large hail threat.

    West of WW 75, a few elevated storms have formed nearer to the
    upper-level low. Steep-mid level lapse rates and cold temperatures
    aloft will continue to support a marginally severe hail threat.
    Relatively weaker deep-layer shear has lead to a more disorganized
    storm mode. As such, the threat is expected to remain sporadic and
    small in spatial scale. A watch is not anticipated for this area,
    though trends will be monitored.

    ..Wendt.. 04/17/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 35410370 36170252 36760112 37079938 37049823 36159834
    34769923 34499979 34680100 34630158 34670270 34750349
    35410370



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