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ACUS11 KWNS 082056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082056
IAZ000-NEZ000-082300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Tue May 08 2018

Areas affected...Western IA and far eastern NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 082056Z - 082300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop in eastern NE and western
IA early this evening. The main threats will be isolated large hail
and damaging winds. No watch is expected.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from the morning convection has
remained stationary along a line from KCKP to KAXA through early
this afternoon. Along and south of this boundary, MLCAPE has
increased to 1000 J/kg as temperatures have risen into the mid-80s
with dewpoints in the mid-50s. Instability may increase a bit more
over the next few hours as dewpoints in the upper 50s to the
southwest advect northward and slightly cooler 500 mb temps move
overhead. Latest GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery shows a cumulus
field deepening and congealing in the area south of KCKP. That area
is still weakly capped per 20Z mesoanalysis, but aforementioned
destabilizing factors may lead to storm initiation in the next hour
or two. Storm development will likely begin at the confluence of the
outflow boundary and the richer theta-e airmass in northwestern IA
with additional development continuing further south along the
frontal boundary to the west through the evening. Deep-layer shear
remains weak across this area which will limit storm organization.
However, a few strong storms capable of damaging wind and large hail
are possible once these storms develop.

..Bentley/Grams.. 05/08/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41769698 42119682 42469646 42749606 42999555 42999494
42909463 42489454 41989468 41849495 41769531 41749586
41679633 41599669 41769698



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ACUS11 KWNS 172031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172030
TXZ000-OKZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0368
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...north central Texas through extreme southern
Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 172030Z - 172230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Trends are being monitored for development of supercells
by 22Z over north central TX. Very large hail appears to be the main
threat, but isolated damaging wind and a tornado are also possible.

DISCUSSION...The dryline continues to mix eastward into western
portion of north central TX this afternoon. Diabatic warming within
the downstream warm sector, steep (8-8.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates
and dewpoints in the low 60s F have contributed to a corridor of
moderate instability with 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Water vapor imagery
shows a zone of mid-upper level drying/subsidence spreading into
north central TX in wake of a leading shortwave trough. The
subsidence and a remnant capping inversion within base of the
elevated mixed layer (sampled by the 18Z Fort Worth RAOB) lends
uncertainty to the timing extent of thunderstorm initiation this
afternoon. However, it remains possible that at least a couple of
storms might initiate along the dryline where strong convergence and
deep mixing through the inversion layer exists. Should the storms
develop, effective bulk shear from 45-50 kt would support supercells
with very large hail the main threat. Low-level shear and size of
0-1 km hodographs will remain relatively modest which should limit
overall tornado threat. However, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

..Dial/Grams.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34519727 34079675 32669706 32299817 32869823 33449825
34189803 34519727



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