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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1642

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, November 13, 2018 09:47:26
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130846
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130846
    NCZ000-SCZ000-130945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1642
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

    Areas affected...Far eastern North Carolina and adjacent coastal
    waters

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 428...

    Valid 130846Z - 130945Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 428 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for a tornado or two will remain through the early
    morning hours. A strong thunderstorm wind gust will also be
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level theta-e advection on the nose of
    south-southeasterly flow has contributed to modest destabilization
    along/near the North Carolina coast. Here, mixed-layer CAPE values
    have increased to between 500-1000 J/kg, in the presence of
    storm-relative helicity between 300-500 m2/s2 per regional VADs.
    Additionally, deep-layer shear is on the order of 60 knots. The
    combination of modest instability and strong low-level/deep-layer
    shear will yield an environment favorable for updraft rotation with
    any thunderstorm that can remain somewhat discrete. This is
    evidenced by periodic supercell-like structures being observed over
    coastal waters by regional radars.

    Additionally, given the strength of the low-level flow (on the order
    of 40-45 knots), a strong thunderstorm wind gust or two cannot be
    ruled out within the stronger thunderstorm cores.

    ..Marsh.. 11/13/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

    LAT...LON 33287880 33677920 33897923 34257874 34557823 35837665
    36047602 36067562 35667542 35207548 34997608 34547650
    33907789 33287880



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