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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1639

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, November 12, 2018 22:51:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 122151
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122151
    FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-122345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1639
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0351 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

    Areas affected...southern Alabama into the Florida Panhandle

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 427...

    Valid 122151Z - 122345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 427 continues.

    SUMMARY...A brief tornado or strong wind gusts remain possible
    across eastern portions of the watch area, from southern Alabama
    into the Florida Panhandle, but the overall threat for severe
    weather is likely to wane.

    DISCUSSION...A broad zone of rain and thunderstorms persists ahead
    of a cold front from the mouth of the MS River into southern AL, in
    a zone of low-level warm advection supported by 30-40 kt
    southwesterly 850 mb flow. Low-level winds will continue to veer
    with time as the strongest lift shifts north of the region. For the
    near-term, a localized area of 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH exists in
    the vicinity of a warm front across the FL Panhandle and southeast
    AL. The VWP at EVX radar does show sufficient shear to support a
    supercell, though the large-scale pattern with a positive-tilt
    trough and lack of heating is tending to minimize coverage of the
    stronger storms. As such, only isolated severe wind gusts or perhaps
    a brief tornado are expected, and a new watch may not be required.

    ..Jewell.. 11/12/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

    LAT...LON 29768537 30208615 30268667 30388704 30938716 31528643
    31668589 31678549 31608523 31238506 30758491 30328503
    29838501 29698507 29768537



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