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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0367

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 08, 2018 19:59:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 081959
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 081958
    MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-082200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0367
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0258 PM CDT Tue May 08 2018

    Areas affected...Northeast SD...far southeast ND...far western MN.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 081958Z - 082200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm development expected in the next hour or two. A
    watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of morning convection has led to destabilization in eastern SD. This area is characterized by an
    environment with surface dewpoints in the upper-50s and temperatures
    in the mid to upper-70s. A cumulus field developed in this area with
    a few areas of better towers starting to show up southeast of
    Aberdeen. Latest RAP mesoanalysis indicates the inhibition has just
    about eroded across this area with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg.
    Therefore, expect storms to develop within the next hour or two.
    Additional destabilization is expected northeast of these developing
    towers where solar insolation has led to rapid heating as morning
    clouds have cleared. Weak effective shear around 25 knots will lead
    to semi-organized multicell clusters as the primary mode. The main
    threat from these storms will be damaging winds due to the
    well-mixed, inverted-v sounding in the area. In addition, there will
    be an isolated risk of large hail as mid-level lapse rates have
    increased above 7 C/km. However, the steeper mid-level lapse rates
    will remain in far southern SD and eastern Nebraska.

    ..Bentley/Grams.. 05/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

    LAT...LON 45339869 45049870 44749842 44579788 44579739 44439682
    44469652 44549636 44729610 45119581 45569582 46019636
    46119707 46169791 45339869



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 17, 2019 19:44:38
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 171944
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171944
    IAZ000-172115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0367
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0244 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

    Areas affected...central Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 171944Z - 172115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may become capable of producing mainly a few
    instances of hail and gusty winds across central Iowa this
    afternoon. At this time, overall threat does not appear sufficient
    for a WW, but trends will continue to be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon, pockets of diabatic warming and
    modest low-level moisture with dewpoints in the 50s F have resulted
    in a corridor of marginal instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) over
    IA. Storms have initiated along a cold front across west central IA
    and in association with an MCV. Winds have veered in the warm sector
    resulting in weak to modest low-level shear. However, a belt of
    stronger winds in the base of a progressive shortwave trough is
    resulting in 30-40 kt bulk shear, sufficient for both multicells and
    possibly some marginal supercell structures as storms develop
    eastward through the warm sector next few hours.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 04/17/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...

    LAT...LON 40879455 41659453 42659437 43019384 42799298 42019250
    41079279 40709377 40879455



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