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ACUS11 KWNS 120501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120500
TXZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 120500Z - 120730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of producing isolated and
marginally severe hail should persist overnight. Watch issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Low-level warm and moist air advection occurring atop a
stable boundary layer is likely contributing to elevated
thunderstorms across parts of central/east TX. Moderately steep
700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.8 C/km noted on the 00Z Del Rio, TX
sounding have probably overspread this region given 40-60 kt of
mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an shortwave trough over the
Southwest and southern High Plains. Related MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
should be present overnight with continued low-level moistening
centered around 850 mb. An isolated thunderstorm that developed
earlier over Gonzales County has undergone a storm split, with the leftward-moving cell quickly becoming dominant as it moved into
Fayette County. This observed behavior coupled with around 50-55 kt
of effective bulk shear suggest that isolated supercells capable of
producing marginally severe hail will pose at least some severe
threat through for the next couple of hours as they move quickly
northeastward. Additional convective development may occur
overnight, and an increasingly messy/multicellular storm mode could
eventually interfere with hail production. Regardless, the initial
large hail threat with any supercells across this region will likely
remain too isolated/marginal to necessitate watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 11/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30269761 30979734 31789592 31669504 31199433 30579437
29869499 29249615 29129692 29549737 30269761



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