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ACUS11 KWNS 120009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120008
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-120615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern New Mexico...central/northern
Texas Panhandle...Oklahoma Panhandle...far northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 120008Z - 120615Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with 1+ inch/hour snowfall rates, is expected
to occur across portions of the southern High Plains this evening
into early tonight.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are beginning to fall below
freezing across much of east-northeast New Mexico and the
central/northern Texas Panhandle, as indicated by recent
observations. Latest RAP point forecast soundings also indicate that
a deep, sub-freezing layer of the troposphere is beginning to
overspread the area, with wet-bulb zero heights in the lowest 400 mb
dropping to/below 0C, with further cooling expected in the next
several hours. Latest mesoanalysis also depicts a deepening
dendritic growth layer (approaching 1-km in some spots) owing to
cold air advection just below 500 mb, in the -12 to -17C layer. As
such, an overall favorable thermodynamic environment for heavy snow
is becoming evident over the southwest High Plains.

Current radar imagery depicts a narrow corridor of moderate to heavy
snow across northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle.
As a positively tilted longwave trough, centered over the Four
Corners area, continues eastward, greater differential cyclonic
vorticity advection over the area will further enhance vertical
ascent, especially within the dendritic growth layer. Heavier snow
potential will ensue, including the possibility of 1+ inch/hour
snowfall rates as the current snowband is expected to increase in
areal coverage and intensity. Latest short term ensemble and high
resolution numerical guidance supports this solution and suggests
that heavy snowfall potential will continue across the area until at
least 0600 UTC.

..Squitieri.. 11/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34210523 34860601 35290504 35950334 36520193 37030027
36749930 35739937 34550189 34230284 33910472 34210523



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