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ACUS11 KWNS 071634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071634
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-071730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1629
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1034 AM CST Wed Nov 07 2018

Areas affected...Portions of far eastern
Mississippi...southern/central Alabama...and far western Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 071634Z - 071730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and a couple of stronger
wind gusts will be possible through this afternoon. Watch issuance
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Within the right-entrance region of a jet streak
centered over the Ohio Valley, large-scale ascent is aiding
convective activity across parts of Mississippi and Alabama this
morning. The 12Z JAN sounding sampled strong mid-level westerlies,
favorable for some updraft organization and increased hail growth. Additionally, the presence of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE is
supportive of a few stronger updrafts. The sounding also sampled a
subsidence inversion around 700 mb, but aforementioned ascent
related to the upper jet is likely eroding this layer of dry air
above 700 mb.

Most convection will likely be focused near a front situated across southern/central Alabama, and these cells will be capable of
isolated large hail and a couple of damaging gusts into this
afternoon. A cell or two farther north may also be capable of
marginally severe hail and some gusty winds, but the severe threat
should diminish with northward extent. Regardless, cells are not
expected to be organized enough to necessitate watch issuance.

..Picca/Thompson.. 11/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 31938914 32958805 33018726 32708483 32248438 31738435
31118467 31098557 31238738 31628883 31938914



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