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ACUS11 KWNS 061711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061711
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-061845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1628
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Tue Nov 06 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 061711Z - 061845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some potential exists for an uptick in convective
intensity across eastern Virginia and the remainder of the Delmarva
this afternoon. Locally damaging winds would be the primary threat.
Watch issuance is possible, but remains fairly uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A thin line of shallow ascent/convection is pushing
east across Virginia early this afternoon. With most forcing for
ascent lifting away from the region and surface heating limited,
considerable uncertainty remains if widespread convection can deepen sufficiently for an organized severe threat over the next several
hours. However, northward advection of low-level theta-e should
slowly boost MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg later this
afternoon.

KAKQ VWP data illustrate decreasing 0-1km flow over the last few
hours, as the core of the low-level jet lifts away from the region.
However, KDOX data continue to show strong south/southwesterly flow
around 50-60 kt at 1 km, such that any deeper/sustained convection
this afternoon could pose a damaging wind threat. Primarily
line-parallel, uni-directional flow should reduce any tornado
threat, but strong low-level shear and some streamwise vorticity
component could yield a brief tornado, especially if low-level lapse
rates steepen. Watch issuance is possible, but questions regarding
convective depth/organization cast uncertainty on this potential.

..Picca/Thompson.. 11/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 37287753 38347680 38917619 39057577 38837519 38187510
36787606 36797733 36967752 37287753



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