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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0366

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 08, 2018 00:18:23
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    ACUS11 KWNS 080018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 080017
    SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-080215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0366
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0717 PM CDT Mon May 07 2018

    Areas affected...Much of central South Dakota and adjacent North
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 080017Z - 080215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...At least a risk for localized strong surface gusts is
    expected to persist with thunderstorm activity spreading eastward
    across the region through the 7-10 PM CDT time frame. A short-lived
    period with increasing thunderstorm organization and more widespread
    strong gusts is possible, but it still seems unlikely that a severe
    weather watch will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity, including isolated strong to
    severe cells, continues to develop east of the higher plains and
    Black Hills, perhaps associated with at least one smaller scale
    perturbation embedded within the broad/low amplitude mid/upper wave
    progressing across and east of the Rockies. Aided by forcing
    associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, in the
    presence of modest mixed-layer CAPE (up to around 1000 J/kg), this
    may persist across much of central South Dakota and adjacent
    portions of North Dakota through the 01-03Z time.

    Deep layer shear is also fairly modest across the region, but the
    lingering relatively strongly heated and deeply mixed boundary layer
    probably will remain favorable to localized strong surface gusts
    approaching or briefly exceeding severe limits. Some coincidental
    further strengthening of a southerly 850 mb jet from 30-40 kt is
    forecast, and this could provide a window of opportunity for
    increasing convective organization with a consolidating cold pool.
    However, any such development is generally expected to be
    short-lived, before activity begins to ingest more stable and/or
    stabilizing boundary layer across the lower Plains later this
    evening.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/08/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45470150 46320052 46419931 45379868 43699940 42980144
    44070191 45470150



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 17, 2019 19:43:07
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171943
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171942
    KSZ000-172215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0366
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

    Areas affected...South-central Kansas...Southeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

    Valid 171942Z - 172215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Agitated cumulus has begun to develop along a
    quasi-stationary boundary draped across south-central Kansas. With
    continued surface heating and mid-level ascent approaching, storm
    development is expected in the next 2-3 hours. Large hail and
    damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity,
    with a transition to a primary wind threat as storms grow upscale. A
    severe thunderstorm watch is likely in the next 2-3 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Near and south of a quasi-stationary boundary from
    south-central Kansas into northeastern Kansas, temperatures have
    warmed into the upper-70s with dewpoints in the upper-50s to low
    60s. Some mid-level clouds associated with a lead shortwave impulse
    have slowed boundary layer destabilization somewhat. However, as
    temperatures continue to warm and the main ascent from the mid-level
    trough continues to overspread the southern/central Plains, storms
    are expected to develop from southwest to northeast along the
    boundary. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective deep-layer
    shear of 35-45 kts will support organized convection. Steep
    mid-level lapse rates of around 8 C/km will support a threat for
    large hail with initial thunderstorm activity. Storms are expected
    to grow upscale rather quickly given the boundary-parallel shear
    vectors. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly with any
    bowing segments that may develop.

    ..Wendt/Grams.. 04/17/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37389917 38099758 38629588 38409540 37759561 37239656
    37209715 37109819 37079909 37149929 37389917



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