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ACUS11 KWNS 072050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072049
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-072245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Mon May 07 2018

Areas affected...Most of eastern MT...northeast WY...and western SD.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 072049Z - 072245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to marginally severe storms are expected
through the afternoon and into the early evening. A watch is
unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Isolated storms have developed this afternoon ahead of
a low amplitude upper wave in central MT. These storms initiated
over the higher terrain, but have recently started to become better
rooted in the lower elevations to the northeast of Billings. In
addition, a few storms have developed on/near a differential heating
boundary in northern MT. While areas east of these storms still have
weak convective inhibition per 20Z RAP mesoanalysis, continued
heating should erode the remaining inhibition in the next few hours.
This will provide a window for occasional strong updrafts as this
environment is characterized by MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg. In
addition, effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will aid in updraft
organization near the MT/WY border. The well-mixed sub-cloud
boundary layer will also enhance the wind threat with these storms.
Given the marginal nature of both the instability and shear profile,
there is a threat for localized large hail and damaging winds, but
the isolated nature of stronger storms will likely preclude the need
for a watch.

..Bentley/Grams.. 05/07/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

LAT...LON 45640880 46820871 47070855 47620769 47630684 47480599
47440539 46950491 46580466 45700402 44490300 43920282
43470323 43380430 43470536 43700651 44070695 44540802
45010859 45640880



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ACUS11 KWNS 171814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171813
OKZ000-TXZ000-172015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 171813Z - 172015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Initial elevated convection has developed to the south of
Amarillo, TX with further attempts at initiation along the dryline southeastward towards Childress, TX. Weak elevated instability and
cold temperatures aloft will support an initial marginally severe
hail threat. More robust development is expected to evolve out of
this initial activity within the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong forcing from an approaching upper-level
shortwave trough has helped to initiate elevated convection to the
south of AMA sooner than guidance has forecast. Meager instability
of perhaps 500 J/kg will temper the initial severe threat from these
storms; however, around 30 kts of effective shear, very steep
mid-level lapse rates, and cold temperatures aloft will support
marginally severe hail.

The greater threat for severe weather appears to be an hour or two
away from materializing along a dryline from AMA to CDS and a
quasi-stationary front from AMA to ICT. Current visible satellite
imagery shows agitated cumulus developing along the aforementioned
dryline. While the boundary layer has yet to destabilize, surface
observations have been a few degrees warmer than guidance. As
further heating occurs across the eastern Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and vicinity, dewpoints in the upper-50s to low-60s
will support MLCAPE values of at least 1500-2000 J/kg. Given the
observational trends, these initial, shallow thunderstorms are
expected to deepen with time into more robust, organized convection
capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. Relatively weak
low-level shear should keep the tornado threat low.

..Wendt/Grams.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35930280 36350107 36530003 35999951 35239949 34539959
34050025 34290122 34720234 35100268 35470299 35930280



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