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ACUS11 KWNS 040033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040033
OKZ000-TXZ000-040230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1619
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018

Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma...Portions of north-central
Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 040033Z - 040230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage along a cold front will increase with the
approach of a shortwave trough. Weak buoyancy should limit any
threat to a few marginally severe wind gusts. No WW is expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection along a cold front draped across central
Oklahoma and North Texas has increased over the last hour per
regional radar mosaic. With the approach of shortwave trough, now
over the South Plains of Texas, coverage will likely increase by
01-02Z. Per 00Z FWD sounding, 35-45 kts of effective shear exists
across the boundary, however, instability is a meager 183 J/kg of
SBCAPE. While cooling aloft may lead to a modest increase in
instability, overall threat should be limited to a few marginally
severe wind gusts at best. A WW is unlikely.

..Wendt/Hart.. 11/04/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34239720 34469676 34349615 33889610 32159670 31499731
31289815 32079829 32709805 34239720



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