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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1618

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, November 02, 2018 22:56:02
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    ACUS11 KWNS 022255
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022255
    NJZ000-DEZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-030030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1618
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0555 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

    Areas affected...Middle Atlantic

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 022255Z - 030030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong convection may develop across the Middle Atlantic
    this evening. Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado are
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level height falls are spreading across the
    Middle Atlantic ahead of pronounced short-wave through. Slow air
    mass modification continues across the Delmarva where lower 60s
    surface dew points are now observed. Over the last hour or so,
    frontal convection has gradually intensified ahead of a surface low
    over south-central VA. Even so, this activity has yet to generate
    lightning which is indicative of the relatively low-topped
    convection. Forecast soundings ahead of this activity appear
    favorable for an organized squall line along the front, and perhaps
    even an isolated supercell. Latest CAMs suggest a gradual upward
    evolving line of convection along the front as it progresses into
    the Delmarva later this evening. There is increasing concern this
    activity could begin to generate locally strong winds, especially if
    bow-type structures evolve. Will continue to monitor this region for
    possible ww.

    ..Darrow/Hart.. 11/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

    LAT...LON 36237880 38437796 39907550 39097488 36377723 36237880



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