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ACUS11 KWNS 021949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021949
FLZ000-022015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1617
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

Areas affected...north-central FL peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021949Z - 022015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a few weak/brief spinups (enhanced swaths of
wind damage) may continue with the stronger mesovortices.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the 1900-1945z period has shown a
series of mesovortices on the northern part of the squall line
moving east-northeastward across the greater Tampa Bay vicinity. A
moist boundary layer and veering/strengthening of a wind profile
will support a mature phase of the squall line as it moves across
the peninsula during the next few hours. It is uncertain whether
the risk for a couple of weak/brief spinups (enhanced but localized
swaths of wind damage) associated with mesovortices will continue.
The greatest risk for a strong gust away from a mesovortex will
likely occur with the northern portion of the line where it has
become more orthogonal with the mean flow. KSPG (St. Petersburg
ASOS) measured a 35kt gust with passage of the squall line.

..Smith/Thompson.. 11/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 28708240 29298145 29288104 29048090 28728092 28058186
28038209 28708240



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