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ACUS11 KWNS 021947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021947
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-022145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1616
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

Areas affected...central South Carolina...central North
Carolina...and southern Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021947Z - 022145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Shallow convection has organized into a couple of linear
segments that should pose at least a low-end threat for damaging
wind gusts. A WW issuance is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...The combination of strong mid-level forcing (ahead of a
wave centered in southeastern Tennessee) and marginal warm-sector
instability has resulted in a couple of narrow, shallow convective
segments - one near the CAE area and another from near CLT to near
GSO. Despite the modest instability, convection-allowing model
guidance suggests that these bands will continue to be maintained
while migrating northeastward across portions of the discussion
area, with downward momentum transfer of stronger mid/upper flow
supportive of a few damaging wind gusts. Slightly stronger buoyancy
on the eastern/southeastern portions of the discussion area
(bolstered by 67-70F dewpoints) may also assist in slight
strengthening of the convective line across central South Carolina
as well. The limited buoyancy will limit any severe weather threat,
though damaging wind gusts may occur through the early evening.

..Cook.. 11/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 33578011 33408039 33358079 33498115 33808134 34098135
34438131 35128112 35908082 36678031 37237973 37627916
37787870 37757824 37587794 37217777 36767774 36077792
35447827 34937862 34327902 33857956 33578011



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