1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1615

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, November 02, 2018 18:21:26
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1541182890-25255-11125
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 021821
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021820
    FLZ000-021845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1615
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0120 PM CDT Fri Nov 02 2018

    Areas affected...west-central FL peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 021820Z - 021845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...The possibility for a brief mesovortex spinup, resulting
    in localized wind damage, may develop and move inland this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KTBW shows an extensive north-south
    squall line over the continental shelf waters in the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico. The northern end of the line is where the strong to locally
    severe risk will likely concentrate during the next few hours as the
    line moves east and inland. A bowing segment and book-end vortex on
    the north end of the line has resulted in several small but
    resolvable circulations associated with the deeper convective
    updraft (40 kft echo top). A warm/moist boundary layer
    characterized by lower 80s temperatures and lower 70s dewpoints is
    contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE despite relatively poor
    lapse rates. The veering and strengthening wind profile with height
    downstream of an amplifying mid-level trough over the central Gulf
    Coast states will support a conditional risk (albeit marginal) for
    localized wind damage from a mesovortex or bowing surge with the
    northern end of the line.

    ..Smith/Thompson.. 11/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TBW...

    LAT...LON 28298312 28578257 28538223 28278224 27928313 28298312



    ------------=_1541182890-25255-11125
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1541182890-25255-11125--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)