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ACUS11 KWNS 010930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010930
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1611
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 AM CDT Thu Nov 01 2018

Areas affected...Southeast LA...eastern MS...central and southern
AL...and western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 419...

Valid 010930Z - 011130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 419 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat remains possible through 11-12Z across
southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi with discrete storms,
ahead of the primary line of storms. Meanwhile, the eastward-moving
line of storms will continue through an environment conducive for
damaging winds and a tornado threat. A new tornado watch will be
needed by 11Z across central and southern Alabama and part of the
western Florida Panhandle, as the air mass downstream destabilizes,
supporting severe storms.

DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a quasi-linear
band of storms moving steadily eastward at 30-35 kt across MS and
southeast LA into the northwest Gulf of Mexico, while discrete
storms continued to develop ahead of the line from the Gulf into
southeast LA/MS. These discrete storms were tracking to the north
and north-northeast within an environment that is sufficiently
buoyant and becoming more strongly sheared, given strengthening
deep-layer wind fields and large hodographs. Individual radar
imagery ahead of the line of storms indicated several of the
discrete storms already have supercell structure from off the LA
coast through southeast LA to southeast MS. A tornado threat will
exist with these storms prior to them being absorbed/overtaken by
the eastward-moving line of storms.

Meanwhile, the QLCS should maintain its structure with eastward
movement this morning, as it advances through the rest of WW 419 and
at least through parts of central and southern AL and the western FL
Panhandle. This will be due to the effective bulk shear vectors
being oriented generally front parallel and forcing for ascent
attendant to a lead shortwave trough moving across the central Gulf
coast states toward the southern Appalachians this morning. Given
the above mentioned increase in hodograph curvature and
strengthening wind fields with eastward extent, damaging winds will
remain possible with the QLCS, and a tornado threat with any
embedded supercells or line vortices.

..Peters/Edwards.. 11/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29499140 30679034 32688985 34138945 33928831 33458721
33028629 32488605 31908593 31028597 30298605 29978619
29858819 29308876 28908928 28818962 28789041 29169152
29499140



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