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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1607

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, November 01, 2018 03:02:23
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 010302
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010301
    MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-010430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1607
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1001 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast LA...MS...Western TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 010301Z - 010430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Tornado watch will likely be warranted downstream across
    portions of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Tennessee.
    Primary severe threat will be after midnight across these regions.

    DISCUSSION...Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the
    lower MS Valley tonight ahead of progressive trough. In response to
    this feature, expansive corridor of convection has developed along
    frontal zone from the upper TX coast into northeast AR. The
    strongest updrafts, with significant lightning, are currently
    located across the upper TX coastal region where buoyancy is a bit
    stronger than higher latitudes. Even so, strengthening shear
    profiles across the lower MS Valley will undoubtedly enhance the
    prospect for organized squall line along with a few supercells.
    Greatest tornado risk will be with any discrete supercells that
    evolve ahead of the frontal squall line. Tornado watch will likely
    be issued by midnight to account for this overnight threat.

    ..Darrow/Guyer.. 11/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30009175 34659064 34488911 29729012 30009175



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