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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1605

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, November 01, 2018 00:05:20
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 010005
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010004
    TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-010200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1605
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of western Tennessee/vicintiy

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 010004Z - 010200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storm intensification/development is possible across
    portions of western Tennessee/vicinity in the next two hours. A
    brief tornado is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are developing/intensifying ahead of the cold
    front within the warm sector across portions of northern
    Mississippi/western Tennessee. Low-level shear and SRH will locally
    increase as surface winds back to the southeast across the area per
    recent observations. Better hodograph curvature and storm motion
    demonstrate potential for brief/weak tornado development with the
    strongest storm(s). Buoyancy is marginal in the area (MLCAPE of
    300-600 J/kg), but there is sufficient shear (effective bulk shear
    of 40-50 knots) for strong/severe storm development. Storms may
    become elevated as the boundary-layer cools, which would decrease
    tornado potential. Given the current observations/recent trends, a
    watch is unlikely in the near term.

    ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 11/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 34888870 34668914 34648948 34858981 35119011 35349020
    35689009 35908991 36638900 36718865 36718821 36558771
    36328758 36088741 35728738 35428766 35128816 34888870



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