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ACUS11 KWNS 312056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312055
ARZ000-MSZ000-312230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1602
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 312055Z - 312230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in intensity this evening, with a
threat of isolated tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A slow-moving front currently extends from northeast AR
to just north of LZK to west of TXK. South of this boundary, a moist
air mass exists and is gradually warming due to advection. MUCAPE is
currently around 1500-2000 j/kg, with effective SRH on the order of
100-150 m2/s2 per LZK VWP.

Shear profiles are forecast to increase a bit this evening in
advance of the upper trough, with 850 flow around 40 kt. This will
result in hodographs favoring supercells, and a tornado or two may
occur. As such, a watch may need to be considered soon.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 34079399 35069221 35669077 35349034 34869046 34029106
33569180 33389247 33499311 33819369 34079399



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