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ACUS11 KWNS 311914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311914
LAZ000-TXZ000-312145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1601
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...parts of east to eastern Texas and far western
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 311914Z - 312145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage and intensity by
late afternoon across central into east-central Texas, continuing
into western Louisiana after 9-10 pm. Damaging winds will be
possible initially, with a couple tornadoes increasingly possible
through the night.

DISCUSSION...An axis of substantial moisture and instability
currently stretches from Deep South TX northward to an approaching
cold front. Lift is increasing across the region in association with
a leading shortwave trough, with an abrupt wind shift noted above
the surface at the DFX VWP. Lift is strongest where this feature
intersects the surface front, currently over central TX where a
cluster of elevated storms exists.

With time, storms should increase in intensity as they translate
southeastward. Severe wind is possible as storms become more linear
in a few hours. Veering winds above the surface will mitigate SRH
and tornado threat for western parts of the discussion area.
However, a tornado threat may eventually materialized over eastern
areas.

For southeastern TX into LA, early-day convection has left
relatively cool air across the Houston area where showers persist.
Area VWPs show marginally favorable wind profiles for supercells,
which should get better with time as both the low-level jet and
winds aloft increase. Here, effective SRH around 200-300 should
develop this evening. As a result, a few storms near the upper TX
coast toward southwest LA may become supercells, and a tornado
cannot be ruled out. In addition, a burst of new development may
occur immediately ahead of any approaching squall line from the
west, with tornado threat.

..Jewell/Thompson.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 27909677 28109731 28939769 29399780 30139795 30509783
30999724 31679630 32299555 32429471 32159399 31639361
31069329 30399313 29649332 29459427 29059493 28659554
28369617 28169637 27909677



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