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ACUS11 KWNS 311836
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311836
TXZ000-NMZ000-312030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1600
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Wed Oct 31 2018

Areas affected...Portions of west TX and extreme southern NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 311836Z - 312030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated large hail threat should continue this
afternoon. Watch issuance appears unlikely for now.

DISCUSSION...Scattered convection that has developed over the higher
terrain of southern NM, northern Mexico, and far west TX will
continue eastward this afternoon in tandem with a shortwave trough
over AZ/NM. Cold mid-level temperatures (around -14 to -18 C at 500
mb) are promoting modestly steep mid-level lapse rates across this
region, with up to 750 J/kg MUCAPE noted in mesoanalysis. A compact
mid-level jet attendant to shortwave trough is supporting 40-50 kt
of effective bulk shear, and isolated supercells capable of
producing primarily large hail should be the main threat in the
short term. With a surface cold front having progressed southward
across most of far west TX and considerable cloudiness present, it
remains unclear if greater instability will be able to develop this
afternoon downstream of ongoing thunderstorm activity. Overall, the
severe threat still appears rather marginal/isolated, and watch
issuance is unlikely in the next couple of hours. Later this
afternoon, there may be some potential for strengthening of
convection, generally southeast of Fort Stockton along/south of the
front.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 10/31/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31390624 31690655 31880674 32230672 32510621 32270516
31910409 31670311 31450260 31010187 30630161 30090159
29750171 29780228 29670255 29160279 28910319 29450438
29860474 30220481 30590505 30920561 31390624



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