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ACUS11 KWNS 062050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062050
MTZ000-IDZ000-ORZ000-WAZ000-062315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Sun May 06 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern OR...southeastern WA...ID...and
western MT

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 062050Z - 062315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated instances of strong to locally damaging wind
gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible through this
evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A compact shortwave trough over OR will continue to
move slowly northeastward through this evening. A related belt of
modestly enhanced southerly to southwesterly mid-level winds is
present across eastern OR and western ID this afternoon. 30-35 kt of
effective bulk shear will be sufficient to support mainly a
multicell/cluster storm mode. Even with some mid/upper-level
cloudiness, surface temperatures have generally warmed into the 70s
and 80s at lower elevations, and both low and mid-level lapse rates
have steepened across this region. A resultant very well-mixed
boundary layer will act to accelerate downdrafts within
thunderstorms, and isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible. Even with low-level moisture remaining quite
limited, 20Z RAP Mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
present where the strongest diurnal heating has occurred (mainly
across ID). Isolated instances of marginally severe hail may also be
noted with the strongest thunderstorm updrafts. The limited
thermodynamic and kinematic environment suggests that the overall
severe threat will remain too marginal to justify watch issuance.

..Gleason/Grams.. 05/06/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...

LAT...LON 43421730 43561899 44251910 45221877 46401835 46881722
47211610 47121448 46801351 46271289 45431232 44741218
43981267 43581405 43461596 43421730



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ACUS11 KWNS 150750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150750
NYZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-150845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Areas affected...southern New York...western Connecticut...New
Jersey...eastern Pennsylvania...eastern Maryland...and Delaware

Concerning...Tornado Watch 74...

Valid 150750Z - 150845Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 74 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 74.

DISCUSSION...A threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
continues along and ahead of an extensive linear convective complex
extending from near ALY south-southwestward through Philadelphia
Metro and southeast of Baltimore, MD. Continued moist advection
ahead of this line was maintaining mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
within the pre-convective environment, resulting in enough
surface-based instability for downbursts - especially within bowing
segments and areas of rotation. Point forecast soundings also
indicate enough low-level shear for occasional strong updraft
rotation and a few tornadoes. With general storm motions of 250/50,
these linear bands of storms should reach the eastern extent of WW
74 (including open waters off the NJ/DE coasts northward into
western Connecticut) after 09Z or so.

After 09Z, storms should encounter slightly cooler surface air in
place over portions of western Connecticut and vicinity due to
trajectories off the cooler waters of the Atlantic. Inflow parcels
should gradually become more elevated as a result, although
continued forcing and the linear organization of the ongoing
convection may still result in an isolated wind-damage threat
extending into portions of CT/MA and vicinity. A new WW is not
anticipated for these areas, however, given the more isolated and
marginal nature of the threat.

..Cook/Edwards.. 04/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 42687387 42587343 42217313 41487296 40637316 39517380
38747450 38457493 38457582 38657608 39317616 40067592
40717539 41357492 41637482 42267445 42567418 42687387



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