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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1598

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, October 29, 2018 12:40:10
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 291240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291239
    MAZ000-RIZ000-291515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1598
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 AM CDT Mon Oct 29 2018

    Areas affected...Far Southern New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291239Z - 291515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal tornado and strong wind-gust threat will be
    possible over the next few hours. The threat is not expected to be
    great enough to warrant issuing a watch this morning.

    DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
    trough moving east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic. Strong
    lift appears to be occurring ahead of the upper-level trough near
    the left exit region of the mid-level jet. In addition, a surface
    trough is located across southern New England. Ahead of this
    feature, warm advection is occurring across Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts where surface dewpoints are in the lower to mid 50s F.
    In response, surface-based CAPE has increased to about 500 J/kg as
    shown on the Chatham, MA 12Z sounding. This sounding also shows 0-6
    km shear near 75 kt along with 0-1 km shear of 20-25 kt. This along
    with the weak instability and strong large-scale ascent may be
    enough for a marginal tornado threat. A few strong wind gusts will
    be possible as well.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 10/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...

    LAT...LON 41746998 42117022 42037140 41607176 41207147 41167086
    41417017 41746998



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