1. Forum
  2. Fidonet Message
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1597

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, October 28, 2018 19:50:07
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1540756212-25255-9495
    Content-Type: text/plain

    ACUS11 KWNS 281950
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281949
    OHZ000-282145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1597
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0249 PM CDT Sun Oct 28 2018

    Areas affected...southwest through south central Ohio

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 281949Z - 282145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few instances of convectively enhanced thunderstorm
    gusts near severe levels are possible through early evening. Threat
    is very marginal, and a watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...As of mid afternoon a broken band of shallow convection
    with sparse lightning is developing over northwest OH along an eastward-advancing cold front and in association with ascent
    accompanying a progressive shortwave trough. Strongest surface-layer destabilization is occurring south of this activity across southwest
    OH where temperatures have warmed to 55-60 F which, along with
    steepening lapse rates, are contributing to 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE. As
    the zone of ascent continues east-southeast, additional convection
    may develop farther south along the front within corridor of greater instability and where stronger winds in the 1-2 km layer reside.
    Tendency has been for the winds to veer just ahead of the front,
    limiting convergence along this boundary. This in addition to
    limited low-level moisture and instability suggest updrafts will
    remain weak/shallow. Nevertheless, downward mixing of stronger winds
    aloft may contribute to occasional gusts near 40 kt outside of
    convection with a few gusts approaching severe levels possible with
    any sustained line/bowing segment through early evening.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 10/28/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...IWX...

    LAT...LON 40788427 40298302 39818228 39098248 39238356 39778442
    40788427



    ------------=_1540756212-25255-9495
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1540756212-25255-9495--

    --- SBBSecho 3.06-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)